Trying to follow and understand the changes in tariffs and what will result or won’t result, is a challenge.  

And so, I found myself reading about the imports and exports of French fries. 

In 2024, the U.S. exported a total of 1,488,712 tons of frozen fries. The main recipients were Japan, Mexico, the Philippines and Canada. The U.S. exports very little frozen fries to Europe (170 tons in 2024).

But while it’s doing a fine job of exporting frozen French fries, the potato pieces are so beloved in the U.S. that the country can’t make enough of them for its own consumption. 

Europe currently exports 463,849 tons of frozen fries to the U.S. from Belgium and the Netherlands, which are the largest exporters of frozen French fries worldwide. 

The U.S. exports very little frozen fries to Europe (170 tons in 2024). 

I assume one reason is because French fries in the Netherlands and Belgium are irresistible. Freshly double fried and served traditionally with or without mayonnaise, and these days with various other options. 

In fact, as a small business model the Dutch have French fries nailed.  “Hole in the wall” vendors exist everywhere. You can buy a paper cone of piping hot French fries, slather them with mayonnaise or not, and eat them walking along the street without drawing any disproving looks. Trust me. 

I’m getting all the information on frozen French fries from an interesting company called DCA Market Intelligence. DCA is based in Leiden in the Netherlands, so I’m assuming the folks at DCA know their stuff when it comes to French fries.  

“Europe's frozen fries exports to Mexico amount to just under 94,000 tons in 2024, indicating that Mexican buyers are already familiar with European frozen fries. Europe has also been exporting frozen fries to Japan for several years, with volumes ranging between 115,000 tons in 2020 to 193,000 tons in 2023,” DCA shared. 

On April 3, the U.S. announced a 20% import tariff on European products.  DCA pointed out, “This may also open up opportunities for Europe, particularly if a significant share of the U.S. frozen fries exports to Japan and Mexico can be replaced by European fries. These markets are substantially larger than the potential loss from reduced exports to the U.S. If Europe can take over these markets from the U.S., we are looking at a sales potential of 400,000 tons.”

Proving (as we know in Guam and the islands) that when life hands you lemons, you make lemonade. 

Since April 3, the situation with tariffs has encompassed pauses and deals. 

But you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. It’s entirely possible that companies exporting French fries to the U.S. may realize that well, there’s a whole world out there of potentially bigger markets whose citizens are equally enamored of French fries. 

Just writing about French fries has me salivating. And I know the rest of you are picturing those crispy-on the outside, soft-on-the inside fries, wherever they come from. 

Of course, we have frozen French fries in our home freezer. 

But I’m writing this at 6:02 p.m., and we have a McDonald’s just minutes from the house. I think I know what’s for dinner.